Was carrying heavy long position on USD/JPY. However I remain very disturbed by the correlation with the Nikkei. When the Nikkei finally opens it is going to tank Big time down towards the 10,000 level. Now NIkkei has lately moved in positive correlation to USD/JPY. So simply because USD/JPY is showing me a big profit why would I hold a long position on the USDJPY at this time. Chat below shows USD/JPY parallel to Nikkei 225 Futures. Sold out longs on USD/JPY. Further from fractal move of USDX to 84.500 had me sell out longs on USDX. Only exposure to markets are now my still heavy shorts on the Equity front (MSCI taiwan, SPI 200).
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Note: this post is 7 months old. . I publish on a regular basis. Please use the search system (or browse the archives) to see if I wrote something else about this subject since this post
Sold Yen short against US Dollar and kept increasing short position on Yen as Nikkei rallied. Besides myself for having not taken a long position on the Nikkei at the 9900 level. I stupidly remained on the sidelines expecting a further drop to the 9700 level. This focus on the retracement fractal blinded me from meta signals rest of global markets were sending (Swiss Market Index, Euro Stoxx 50, Dax, Bovespa … all hit Global pivot and rallied.) I should have been taking my queue from iterated market bottom. I am consequently late to the Nikkei rally. As I accumulate position it is not without risk as a recoil would be double whammy. Placed tight stops at the 10100 level.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Note: this post is 7 months old. . I publish on a regular basis. Please use the search system (or browse the archives) to see if I wrote something else about this subject since this post
Pivot broken through on DJ Euro Stoxx. Shows markets heading further south. Expect Nikkei to sell off further to the 9630 level. Placed limit buy orders at 9640 through 9600. Sold out long position on USDJPY as expect Yen to follow with a further rally.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Note: this post is 7 months old. . I publish on a regular basis. Please use the search system (or browse the archives) to see if I wrote something else about this subject since this post
Fractals point to completion of commodity correction. Accumulated a large long position on GSCI futures (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Futures). Will keep pyramiding up as markets rally. Took on a small long position again in corn futures with a tight stop at the 353 level. Continue to carry a timid long position on the Nikkei futures which shows some promising signs. Overall my largest positions and exposure is in the forex markets were volatility continues to rise with the uncertainty surrounding Greece. Might open up a pandora’s box for the EU with Portugal, Spain and italy next on the list.
Forex: Long GBP/AUD, Short EUR/SEK, long USD/JPY, long US Dollar Index futures
Interest Rates:
Eurodollar December 2011 perceived fractal has not proven as expedient as I had hoped. I however continue to carry a short position. If these markets can touch the 97.300 level I will increase shorts to over 100 contracts.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Covered Short position on Eurodollar December 2011 futures at 97.010 level. I expect Eurodollar futures to probably fall further tomorrow before they begin a secondary rally back to the 97.600 level. I will be going short again at those levels.
Trying to time the secondary selloff in Orange Juice futures has proved flawed. I sold out my longs at the 1.30 level and went short only to see orange juice rally further to the 1.350 level. Who is to say it will not continue rallying. My analysis points to a retracement in OJ futures to the 110 level. Trying to ride both waves carries the unintended consequence of missing the bull wave.
Remain heavily long the Nikkei but I missed out on the MSCI Taiwan Index futures. All said, volatility will show up most in the Forex markets. I remain heavily long the US Dollar and short the Yen.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Yen finally began dropping, Kept selling Yen short against dollar as it broke the 0.9450 level. Continued selling through 0.9700 carrying large short yen position against US Dollar. Further increased short position of yen against Aussie as it rallied through 0.7600 (AUDJPY). Overall I am heavily long the Aussie and Short the Yen.
Kept increasing short position on 2011 Eurodollar Interest rate futures. ED broke the critical 97.140 level only to bounce back above it. I need it closing meaningfully below it to leverage short position.
Increased longs on Nikkei and tightened stop positions.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Corn broke back up with Gusto past the 400 to 405. Putting my long position into positive territory. Increased longs on Orange Juice Futures.
Increased longs on Commodity Continuous Index.
Biggest play is Japan. I am betting that a beggar-thy-neighbor policy is the last resort for Japan. They have an inherent interest to devalue the Yen. I consequently keep selling the Yen short against the US dollar and the Australian dollar, Shorting the JGB futures (Negative correlation to Yen) and keep increasing long Nikkei position.
The Jester , the Sage and The Artist in one: Gordon Brown
Gordon brown today delivered the best punch line I have heard in ages. Quote from CNN:
“British Prime Minister Gordon Brown says that markets needs morals and they work best when values are upheld”
I hope he meant that as a Joke. Someone needs to drum into his head: Markets are neither moral nor immoral, they are simply amoral Mr. Brown
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
AUDJPY - Increased longs on Aussie with stops at 2 x ATR (64.95)
Japanese exports continue to give credence to the heuristic of a beggar-thy-neighbor policy as the only few alternatives to revive the economy. Despite the fallacy of illusion of alternatives the Forex charts and positive returns from shorts on JGB futures (negatively correlated to Yen) are further indications that the verdict might be in. Chart to the left of AUDJPY tells the story. Drastically increased long positions on the Aussie against the Yen as they broke past the 68.250 level.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Overweight with the Aussie as underlying currency has finally produced expedient returns as it continued its rally with gusto almost touching 0.7000. The divergence with Gold seems finally to have ended and convergence began. Increased long position on Aussie against US Dollar.
Further Aussie / Yen underlying cross rates reached the critical 67.500. I plan to drastically increase position if Yen breaks lower against the Aussie past the 67.500 level.
Increased long position on Corn futures, doubled longs on MSCI Taiwan, Nikkei and DJ Euro Stoxx futures.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Note: this post has been published in 2009. It's very likely, the information contained in this post are no more valid today. Please use the search system (or browse the archives) to see if I wrote something else about this subject since this post
The quote is often attributed to James R Keene “I get awful tired sometimes, but I come again”. Sums up market movements lately. As Global pivots hit I kept accumulating Nikkei at lows between 7500 to 7200. Nikkei reached the abyss and recoiled trading back above the 7500. Likewise the Aussie has moved back above the 0.6500 level.
Orange juice futures recovered losses as they hoover about the 0.7000 level.
As Japan announced the largest drop in Exports it is interesting to see dramatic drop in Yen against the dollar. The Central banks intervention seems evident. The only alternative for Japan seems a concerted effort to weaken the Yen. Sold the Yen short, sold Japanese 10 year bond futures (JGB) short as well (Correlation to Yen movements) and kept large long position on Nikkei.
The Dow touched the 7090 and performed a dead cat bounce to the the 7332 level. What disturbes me most about the characteristics of the bounce has been the lack of volume. The next 48 hours should define the direction markets will take.
By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets
Financial Markets | RefCapGroup | 
May 5, 2010 7:07 am | 
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