Japan /Nikkei /Yen

Sold Yen short against US Dollar and kept increasing short position on Yen as Nikkei rallied. Besides myself for having not taken a long position on the Nikkei at the 9900 level. I stupidly remained on the sidelines expecting a further drop to the 9700 level. This focus on the retracement fractal blinded me from meta signals rest of global markets were sending (Swiss Market Index, Euro Stoxx 50, Dax, Bovespa … all hit Global pivot and rallied.) I should have been taking my queue from iterated market bottom. I am consequently late to the Nikkei rally. As I accumulate position it is not without risk as a recoil would be double whammy.  Placed tight stops at the 10100 level.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Nikkei Warning Indicator / Taiwan / OJ Futures

Nikkei:

Indicators began flashing red lights as Hang Seng failed to break new highs yet Nikkei presented a fake breakout to 10660. Further divergent indicators has been the Yen which has rallied to 93.40 against the dollar and the further rally in Japan 10 Yr Govt bonds.

Significantly reduced my long Nikkei futures position to single digits, with further tight stops at the 10300 level. The Nikkei has a tendency to open with major gap downs on retracements.

MSCI Taiwan:

Has produced mixed messages. Fractal which appeared to signify bullish rally petered out. A move below 240.00 will have me out of long position

Orange Juice:

Retracement nears an end. Expect the 90.00 level to hold, and Orange Juice to make new highs of 120.00

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Pictures worth a 1000 words

Japanese exports continue to give credence to the heuristic of a beggar-thy-neighbor policy as the only few alternatives to revive the economy. Despite the fallacy of illusion of alternatives the Forex charts and positive returns from shorts on JGB futures (negatively correlated to Yen) are further indications that the verdict might be in. Chart to the left of AUDJPY tells the story. Drastically increased long positions on the Aussie against the Yen as they broke past the 68.250 level.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets