EURCHF // Stupid Trade

Following the parabolic drop of the Euro against the Swiss franc which has occurred three times since 10/12/2007, I formulated the heuristic of a five wave knee jerk rebound. I had a signficant long position on EUR/CHF with an average fill of 1.3270. Everything was going wonderfully well until it exhibited a key reversal day on 7/20/2010. It was a valid indicator of a reversal but not a trend change. I sold out all my longs as EUR/CHF retraced to 1.333 on 7/22/2010. (This reversal had not even violated the average volatility of EURCHF). EURCHF in Earnest began the Knee jerk rebound trading today higher than previous temporary highs 1.3719 and yours truely had nothing in the game !!! The STUPID STUPID play of having sold out too early to protect a silly few pips ! I am back in long with a worse average fill of 1.3700

Previous pattern: 7/31/2008 (A) – 10/27/2008 (B) – 12/16/2008 (C)

Fast Forward to todays Chart:

With movement past 1.3700, EUR/CHF has a high probability of moving to 1.4800  in a five wave fractal. Disappointed with having missed my original position of 1.3270. But at 1.3700 at least I am in the game.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

No Comments

No comments yet.

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.