Pivot Broken

Pivot broken through on DJ Euro Stoxx. Shows markets heading further south. Expect Nikkei to sell off further to the 9630 level. Placed limit buy orders at 9640 through 9600. Sold out long position on USDJPY as expect Yen to follow with a further rally.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Global Pivots

Global Pivots getting touched:

Western Markets:

- DAX at 5520 is less than 200 points away from pivot (5316) set on 11/03/2009

- Dow at 9985 is less than 400 points away from pivot (9599) set on 11/03/2009

- DJ Stoxx 50 at 2693 is less than 10 points away from pivot (2680) set on 11/03/2009 (Began buying with limit orders at 2685) !!!

Asia Markets:

- MSCI Taiwan touched Pivot 259.30 set on 11/03/2009 – Began buying with limit orders at 260 – Long

-  SPI 200 Futures touched  4446 set on 11/03/2009 – Began buying again with limit orders of 4450

Brazil / Mexico / Canada

- Canada touched Pivot and points to a rebound.

- Brazil and Mexico . Most bearish on these two markets. So far away from Pivot of 11/03/2009. Keep Selling. They might drop by big double digits today.

Should all markets break past  pivots of 11/03/2009 then this is a correction that might turn into a panic.  I have placed tight stops to get me out. But probability of a rebound at these pivot levels is high. Willing to bet a little on them.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Double Bind

Sold out longs on Corn futures as entry proved ill timed. Corn futures sold off past 355 level and I closed out initial long position with a slight loss. Reduced longs on Nikkei as Hang Seng continues to show a bearish pattern. I will begin putting on a small short position again on the Hang Seng despite perception of an end to the current selloff. Current correction could either have reached its zenith or could be a nascent sell off to a larger correction. Will hedge bets with longs on Nikkei and Shorts on Hang Seng. Increasing position with whichever proves expedient.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Commodities / Forex/ Equities

Fractals point to completion of commodity correction. Accumulated a large long position on  GSCI futures (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Futures). Will keep pyramiding up as markets rally. Took on a small long position again in corn futures with a tight stop at the 353 level.  Continue to carry a timid long position on the Nikkei futures which shows some promising signs. Overall my largest positions and exposure is in the forex markets were volatility continues to rise with the uncertainty surrounding Greece. Might open up a pandora’s box for the EU with Portugal, Spain and italy next on the list.

Forex: Long GBP/AUD, Short EUR/SEK, long USD/JPY, long US Dollar Index futures

Interest Rates:

Eurodollar December 2011 perceived fractal has not proven as expedient as I had hoped. I however continue to carry a short position. If these markets can touch the 97.300 level I will increase shorts to over 100 contracts.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

SPI 200

Began accumulating long position on SPI 200 Futures as fractals point to correction have ended. Average Fill of 4600. Will keep increasing if Market continue to rally.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Equities | Eurodollar Futures (Interest rates) | Nikkei

Covered short position on MSCI Taiwan Index futures as fractals near confirmation. Covered short position on Hang Seng futures as well. Began buying Nikkei futures at the 10320 level, ideal would be the Nikkei under 10200. Will slowly increase at those levels.

Eurodollar futures moment of truth appears to have arrived. Began building a short position on December 2011 Eurodollar futures. Ideal fills of 97.650. However will take what I can get.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Equities / Dollar / Eurodollar

Kept increasing short position on Equity Index futures (MSCI Taiwann Index Futures and Hang Seng Futures). Doubled and redoubled longs on GPB and US Dollar as NAV kept rising.

The moment of truth is when to go short Eurodollar futures. My target is December Eurodollar 2011 futures at price range of 97.650.

Nikkei finally began giving up gains as it moves into secondary correction. Selling off to 10605. Will be going long Nikkei at the 10200 level.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Corn Futures | Dollar Index with Eurodollar Futures as Meta Indicator | Nikkei

Corn Futures made an about turn, dropping drastically from 426 through my stop position at 400 closing down at 392. Overnight they continued their selloff through to 372. Previous profits generated in corn futures were wiped out as I got stopped out (thankfully) at 398. In Hindsight there was no way my technicals had forecast such a retracement. Will begin going long Corn only if bullish trend develops again with crossover averages.

US Dollar Index, continues its retracement. Moment of truth depends on Index holding the 76.500 level. The meta indicator continues to be the Eurodollar futures. Fractal show Eurodollar December 2011 futures rallying to the 97.650 level. I will be taking on a large short position on Eurodollar futues at those levels and will use occasion to increase my exposure on the US Dollar.

Nikkei continues to hoover at the 10900 level. On the sidelines.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Where does the Nikkei go From here

Nikkei futures seem to exhibit iterated pattern from rally in May of 2003.  Zooming on market fractal from 10/21/2003 to 2/10/2004 following chart pattern emerged.

Extrapolated Pattern: (Down wave a-b-c then up wave A-B-C-1-2-3-4-5 then retracement back to B before breakout)

Fast Forward to Current Nikkei movement:

We experience the down wave a-b-c Which sent Nikkei from  10770 on 8/31/2009 down to 9005 on 11/30/2009

This has been followed by an up wave A-B-C-1-2-3-4-5 which has sent Nikkei From 9005 up to  10800 (closed today on the SGX Futures).

Nikkei has three times struggled to break resistance only to close below highs.

If iterated fractal is valid Nikkei should sell back to the  10200 level before gaining gusto to break through 10770 barrier taking us to at least the 12,000 level.

Caveat:

Should NIkkei however simply breakout higher, will consider above heuristic flawed and just buy back in to rally. However indications of strength in the Yen point to a correction.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets

Hang Seng / Forex GPBAUD

Hang Seng shows technicals of a pending selloff. Tested the waters by putting on a small short position at the 22450 level. Will increase if initial trade proves profitable.

GBPAUD

Pound continues to sell off but I continue to perceive a bullish turn. Fractal shows Mirror image formation ABCD | A’B'C’D’
With D’ at 1.7300. Will begin buying heavily at the 1.7350 levels.

By Andrew Shawn – Recursive Investments in Global Financial Markets