Reflexivity Capital Group

Bovespa / IPC Mexico a Closer view

RefCapGroup — Wed, 02 May 2012 10:56:22 +0000

On the 4th of November 2010 Bovespa hit new temporary highs of 73,103. On 9th of November 2010 IPC followed touching temp highs of 36,813. From there on out Bovespa proceeded on a tangential to the IPC. Bovespa recorded on the 23rd new temp lows of 67,728 while the IPC hit new temp highs of 37,153 on the 25th of November 2010. IPC finally joined down cycle of Bovespa on the 1st of January 2011. A roughly 8 week gap.

IPC Mexico Index

Bovespa Index

Fast Forward to today’s Market …

Although to paraphrase a great American comedian who defined “The past as a foreign country, they do things different there”, using the heuristic of the perceived pattern, a new high in the IPC should correlate with a failed retest of the Bovespa high (e.g a move to say the 65,000 level (End of May beginning of June). Shorts on the IPC would prove expedient then.

Bovespa || IPC Mexico Index

RefCapGroup — Thu, 19 Apr 2012 10:09:39 +0000

Empiricism of correlation between Bovespa and the Mexico IPC index has the semblance of an 8 week lag with the Bovespa acting as a leading Indicator. With the IPC Mexico Index hitting new highs of near 40,000 while the Bovespa continues to drift lower following a failed rebound of the 73,000 level (touched only 69,000 before drifting lower), indications would indicate a short position placed on the IPC in early May, mutatis mutandis should do well.

What if Paulson is right ?

RefCapGroup — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 12:20:52 +0000

Headlines on o the FT announce Paulson goes short German Bunds. That he jumps the gun is a given considering he has over 24 Billion dollars under management. I however am a little pawn who can afford to wait for a trend change before jumping on a moving futures position. I have continuously starred at the Bund Futures, tried twice shorting them only to be left holding the bag as fractal failed to prove expedient.

Bund Futures

Markets

RefCapGroup — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 09:06:10 +0000

“If central banks bring interest rates down to almost zero and nothing happens then it is not an ordinary world.”

For now it seems the crowd believes it is an ordinary world. I remain on the sidelines in equities.

If the heuristic of the Feds seeking to depreciate the dollar and create inflation is valid, such would make itself apparent in the general CRB index. The only major position I consequently continue to carry remains the DJ AIG Commodity Index futures.

Equanimity View of Global Equity Index Futures

RefCapGroup — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 11:32:49 +0000

Seeking Internal fractals in markets based on Global pivot points, the weekly charts show US Equities as thee only markets to have proven Pivot upwards. I continue to monitor charts and hold for opportune moment bet on divergence.

The Strong Dollar

RefCapGroup — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 20:39:06 +0000

Portfolio is all dollars as I kept leveraging longs on US dollar Index, USD.JPY and GBP.NZD. My initial put position on Nasdaq futures did not materialize as it was counter to trend. I sold out the Nikkei position to early and was back buying yesterday as Nikkei continues to move with a negative correlation to USD.JPY. What however keeps disturbing me in the back of my mind is the strong GBP.NZD. It has by empiricism moved counter to Equities but this time around the correlation appears to be positive. Then again so were dollar rallies until a few weeks ago.

Trendlines break

RefCapGroup — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 12:40:13 +0000

Nasdaq 100 trendlines broke yesterday on an iceberg divergence between nasdaq 100 futures and Nasdaq Composite. Further divergences can be observed between the Dow Industrials and Dow transports which temporary would not bode well for the bullish sentiment without a retracement occuring.

Increased longs on US Dollar Index futures, GBP.NZD, sold out longs on Nikkei 25, and bought short term puts on Nasdaq Futures.

A Fractal Global Perspective View

RefCapGroup — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 11:28:35 +0000

Kept buying up US Dollar Index

RefCapGroup — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 20:26:32 +0000

On key reversal, kept buying the US Dollar Index, pyramiding longs on USD Cross rates.

DJ AIG /CRB / GSCI Commodity Index Futures

RefCapGroup — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 13:51:41 +0000

Divergence between GSCI Commodity Index futures (which from empiricism acts as a leading indicator to direction of the CRB and DJ AIG) has provided an opportune trade as keep increasing longs on the DJ AIG index futures.

DJ AIG / GSCI